Wednesday, January 03, 2007

2030: Not India, Not China,..USA still a superpower...

recent blog lead to this thought..: is Asia is king of 21st century?? that what we are hearing today. then, why I feel America(/'Big brother') will still boss around..?

Now with genX everyone in the family has a word to say/comment to make but 'Big brother' makes decisions and will continue to do so. 2006 events highlights self-confidence among others countries & divide in US community. Lets not forget the fact mr.Bush is unpopular so whatever he(/his friends/his policy) does is & will be unpopular not just around the world but within americans as well. A genuine superpower does not merely have military and political influence, but also must be at the top of the economic, scientific, and cultural pyramids. Soviet Union was only a partial superpower, and the most recent genuine superpower before the United States was the British Empire.

Economy: challenger 'China' - the progress that the US economy would make from 1945 to 2030 (85 years) would have to be achieved by China in just the 25 years from 2005 to 2030. Even then, this is just the total GDP, not per capita GDP, which would still be merely a fourth of America's. (assuming US GDP 3.5% and china's GDP 10%.. by 2030, US economy size $30 trillion in 2006 dollar and china's will be around $2.2 trillion)

Brand america from Inventions to mass-marketing: Creating world-accepting brand such as Nike, Coco-cola, Xerox, Google, (very recently)Youtube,. Europe & Japan had worked very hard in last 50yrs to have few in few specific selectors. Become the nation that produces the new inventions and corporations that are adopted by the mass market into their daily lives. Lets accept American-dominated 'blogosphere' emerged as a powerful force of information & media. USSR was ahead of the US in the space race at first, until President Kennedy decided in 1961 to put a man on the moon by 1969. now, China has plans to put a man on the moon by 2024.

Military power: "Have a military capable of waging wars anywhere in the globe (even if it does not actually wage any). Part of the opposition that anti-Americans have to the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq is the envy arising from the US being the only country with the means to invade multiple medium-size countries in other continents and still sustain very few casualties. No other country currently is even near having the ability to project military power with such force and range. Mere nuclear weapons are no substitute for this. The inability of the rest of the world to do anything to halt genocide in Darfur is evidence of how such problems can only get addressed if and when America addresses them."

Education & Immigration: 17 of the world's top 20 universities are in the US. ofcourse, we can notice odd good B-school poping-up elsewhere but Noone is even close to MIT. so US will continuce to attract top students from Asia, Europe and retain them. "US effectively receives a subsidy of $100 to $200 billion a year, as people educated at the expense of another nation immigrate here and promptly participate in the workforce". as long as, India & No other country has size & capablities (atleast today) to attract smart immigratent.

Entertainment & Culture: No one will be able to (/willing to) address Piracy issues (we need smart business-man & business plan to overcome this problem). and "When American teenagers are actively pirating music and movies made in India or China, only then will the US have been surpassed in this area. Take a moment to think how distant this scenario is from current reality."

Europe and Japan have tried for decades, and have only achieved parity with the US on maybe two of these dimensions at most.

PS: US will remain superpower, claims CIA

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