Deregulation: The reason for crisis

Deadly Sins of America are Mapped

Very interesting map about One nation, seven sins: Geographers measure propensity for evil in states, counties

Greed was calculated by comparing average incomes with the total number of inhabitants living beneath the poverty line. On this map, done in yellow, Clark County is bile.

Envy was calculated using the total number of thefts — robbery, burglary, larceny and stolen cars. Rendered in green, of course, Clark County is emerald.

Wrath was calculated by comparing the total number of violent crimes — murder, assault and rape — reported to the FBI per capita. Vought and his colleagues used the color red to illustrate wrath, so Clark County looks like a fresh welt. Washoe is slightly statistically duller. Everywhere else is a friendly pork pink.

Lust was calculated by compiling the number of sexually transmitted diseases — HIV, AIDS, syphilis, chlamydia and gonorrhea — reported per capita. Here again, Clark and Washoe counties are worst. Carson City County is a close third.

Gluttony was calculated by counting the number of fast food restaurants per capita, and this is one category where Clark County is bested. First in deep fry goes to Carson City.

Sloth was calculated by comparing expenditures on arts, entertainment and recreation with the rate of employment. Here again Clark County is beat, scoring only average on the scale of sloth.

And pride, lastly, is most important. The root of all sins, in this study, is the aggregate of all data. Vought and his Kansas colleagues combined all data from the six other sins and averaged it into an overview of all evil. So pride, mapped in purple, shows the states two darkest bruises: counties Clark and Carson City.

Trouble in the US mortgage market

The riskiest segment of the U.S. mortgage market, which serves borrowers with poor credit histories at high interest rates, has seen rising default rates in recent months.

'Subprime' Mortgage-- are "no doc" loans. That's when you get a loan without giving the lender any documentation about your income. There are also "low doc" loans, or when you get a loan with just a little paperwork about your employment and income. The number of non-traditional loans extended with low or no documentation jumped by 20% (to 65%) between 2003 to 2005. While subprime mortgages have spread credit more widely and helped more people buy their own homes, critics contend a hot real estate market encouraged lenders to get more aggressive and offer increasingly complicated terms that borrowers did not always fully understand. These risks are being exposed as the housing market cools.

Some analysts believe the crisis in the subprime mortgage market could boost the chances of the Federal Reserve cutting its target for benchmark interest rates. One of the factors driving the poor performance of subprime mortgages has been a series of interest rate increases by the Fed.

Even if interest rate cut might be coming, it may be too little, too late for as many as millions Americans who could lose their homes in the subprime shakeout.

UN warns US debt could trigger dollar collapse

The United States dollar is facing imminent collapse in the face of an unsustainable debt, the United Nations warned today.

United States debt, which had now deepened to well over $3 trillion, might turn out to be unsustainable in the rest of 2007 or next, putting further downward pressure on the United States dollar, Rob Vos, the Director of the Development Policy and Analysis Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), told correspondents at a Headquarters press conference.

He pointed out that since its peak in 2002, the dollar had depreciated vis-à-vis the major currencies by some 35 per cent and by 25 per cent against a broader range of other currencies.

Vos made these comments at the launch of the 2007 World Economic Situation and Prospects report midyear update.

With that increased debt the risk of a sharp depreciation of the dollar continued, he warned. If countries willing to invest in United States dollar assets expected further depreciation, they might be less willing to hold dollar assets, triggering a much sharper fall in the United States dollar. The risk of disorderly adjustment and the steep fall of the dollar existed. The policy challenge was how to prevent a hard landing of the United States dollar and forge a benign adjustment of the global imbalance.

In terms of the United States housing sector, he noted that a recession in the housing sector had continued in 2007, with a slowdown in activity and a large number of unsold homes. While house prices had not fallen, that might happen in the months and years to come if the recession continued as expected. A decline in prices would affect the domestic market, particularly household consumption in the United States, resulting in the risk of a serious recession in its economy, slowing growth from 2.1 per cent to 0.5 per cent in 2007 and 2008. That would then significantly slow the world economy and transmit the recession into the rest of the world.

The United States deficit had increased to $860 billion at the end of 2006, and was expected to fall to $800 billion in 2007. That deficit was basically being financed by surpluses in the developing and oil exporting countries, as well as some major developed countries, in particular Japan and Germany. The European Union,at large, was projected to continue to have a slight deficit on its current account.

Continuing, he said the current tendency in macroeconomic policy was not all in the right direction, particularly in the surplus countries where there had been a tightening of monetary and fiscal policies, particularly in Germany and Japan, making it more difficult for the United States to lower its external deficits by export growth. The United States would also need to adopt some contractionary policies to slow down its deficit, he recommended.

Source

The United States dollar is facing imminent collapse in the face of an unsustainable debt, the United Nations warned today.

United States debt, which had now deepened to well over $3 trillion, might turn out to be unsustainable in the rest of 2007 or next, putting further downward pressure on the United States dollar, Rob Vos, the Director of the Development Policy and Analysis Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), told correspondents at a Headquarters press conference.

He pointed out that since its peak in 2002, the dollar had depreciated vis-à-vis the major currencies by some 35 per cent and by 25 per cent against a broader range of other currencies.

Vos made these comments at the launch of the 2007 World Economic Situation and Prospects report midyear update.

With that increased debt the risk of a sharp depreciation of the dollar continued, he warned. If countries willing to invest in United States dollar assets expected further depreciation, they might be less willing to hold dollar assets, triggering a much sharper fall in the United States dollar. The risk of disorderly adjustment and the steep fall of the dollar existed. The policy challenge was how to prevent a hard landing of the United States dollar and forge a benign adjustment of the global imbalance.

In terms of the United States housing sector, he noted that a recession in the housing sector had continued in 2007, with a slowdown in activity and a large number of unsold homes. While house prices had not fallen, that might happen in the months and years to come if the recession continued as expected. A decline in prices would affect the domestic market, particularly household consumption in the United States, resulting in the risk of a serious recession in its economy, slowing growth from 2.1 per cent to 0.5 per cent in 2007 and 2008. That would then significantly slow the world economy and transmit the recession into the rest of the world.

The United States deficit had increased to $860 billion at the end of 2006, and was expected to fall to $800 billion in 2007. That deficit was basically being financed by surpluses in the developing and oil exporting countries, as well as some major developed countries, in particular Japan and Germany. The European Union,at large, was projected to continue to have a slight deficit on its current account.

Continuing, he said the current tendency in macroeconomic policy was not all in the right direction, particularly in the surplus countries where there had been a tightening of monetary and fiscal policies, particularly in Germany and Japan, making it more difficult for the United States to lower its external deficits by export growth. The United States would also need to adopt some contractionary policies to slow down its deficit, he recommended.

Credits: Press Esc

U.S., Immigrants == Future Entrepreneurs

A new study found that one in four technology and engineering companies founded in the U.S. between 1995 and 2005 had at least one founder who was foreign-born. Many of them were from India and China. Nationwide, immigrant-founded companies generated $52 billion in sales in 2005 and employed 450,000 people. Non-citizen immigrants living in the U.S. also are increasingly being named as inventors or co-inventors on patents.

Research shows that immigrants have become a significant driving force in the creation of new businesses and intellectual property in the U.S. -- and that their contributions have increased over the past decade.

If anyone thinking that U.S. is losing its edge due to immigrants this was proved wrong by study. Infact, advantages the U.S. has, is something unique to be able to bring in the world's best and brightest.

The study also found that:

* Indians were the most dominant ethnic group, heading up 26% of the companies that were founded by immigrants.

* California led the way with immigrant entrepreneurs. There, 39% of tech companies were immigrant-founded. New Jersey was close behind, with 38%, and Georgia and Massachusetts also had a healthy number of tech companies founded by immigrants. Immigrant-founded companies were much less common in Washington, North Carolina and Texas.

* Chinese (either mainland or born in Taiwan) were most likely to set up their companies in California. Nearly half of the companies founded by mainland Chinese and 81% of companies headed by Taiwan-born immigrants were in California. Indian-founded companies were well represented in both California and New Jersey, while British entrepreneurs favored California and Georgia.

* The immigrant mix differed from state to state. In Florida, 35% of immigrant-founded companies were started by people from Cuba, Columbia, Brazil, Venezuela or Guatemala. In Massachusetts, Israelis were the biggest founding group, accounting for 17% of immigrant-founded startups. In New Jersey, Indians headed 47% of the new companies started by immigrants. The researchers suggested that the ethnic clustering of start-up companies reflected the tendency of immigrants to form social and business networks.

* Immigrants were most likely to start companies in the semiconductor, computer, communications and software fields. They were least likely to start companies in defense/aerospace and environmental industries.

* While immigrants are making their mark all over the country, Silicon Valley remains a hotbed of entrepreneurship. Just over 52% of start-up companies there had immigrant founders, with the highest proportion from India, followed by China and Taiwan. By comparison, just under 19% of startups in Research Triangle Park, N.C., another high-tech center in the country, had an immigrant founder.

Immigrant entrepreneurs may be especially attractive to investors since they bring certain advantages to the business equation, For instance, there may be a chance for enhanced revenues because the immigrant's ties to the homeland afford a "pathway to lucrative, larger markets." On the cost side, the immigrant may have access to lower-cost workers, supplies and manufacturing facilities in the home country.

I hope U.S. government will take these fact has input and reflect in Immigration Policies accordingly.

Indo-US relationship.. complication & opportunities

Best explained by Stephen Cohen, Washington seems to understand very little about the complexities and ambiguities present on the Indian of this putative alliance. India is a democracy; while there was continuity between the past conservative nationalist BJP-led coalition and the current left-liberal Congress-led coalition, the fact is that India is likely to remain governed for many years by ideologically diverse coalitions of uncertain durability. This means that US-Indian relations will remain hostage to Indian domestic politics. Further, there are important differences within the Indian strategic elite as to the wisdom of the growing American tie. India has four schools of thought in India regarding relations with America. These derive from differing readings of the past and differing visions of the future.

The Enthusiasts tend to look upon past strains in the U.S.-Indian relationship as stemming from the Cold War or America's ignorance of India's importance. They believe that times have changed, and emphasize the many benefits that will accrue to India if it were to join with the United States in a quasi-alliance relationship. The Vajpayee government invented the term "natural alliance" which has been adopted by Prime Minister Singh's government ,and American officials. The Enthusiasts, found in the Indian business community, in a few corners of the foreign ministry, and among some politicians, are confident that they can manage the Americans via the growing India lobby, by more gracious diplomacy, and by holding out the prospect of collaboration on a number of issues of mutual importance, notably terrorism, containing China, and coping with Islamic radicalism. They see the US-Israel relationship as a model, and for that reason have strongly cultivated Indian-Israeli ties. In the distant future, they see this new alliance as ensuring that American support for Pakistan will wither away.

The Free Riders resemble the Enthusiasts in much of their analysis of the past, and acknowledge the major changes in the international order and in American perceptions of India, but they do not envision a long-lasting, open ended or durable alliance relationship with Washington. They might ride the American bus for a few stops, but not to the end of the line. Widely distributed in the Indian strategic community, the Free Riders believe that sooner or later as India gains strength from the American connection, strains will appear. In their view Indian national interests require a close connection to Washington but that in the long run America is too fickle and too powerful to be trusted. The US can be used, however, to establish India at the global level as a major power (symbolized by admission to the nuclear club, and a Security Council Seat), and to make India the dominant power in South Asia. For some Free Riders, Washington's acquisition of bases in Afghanistan and Pakistan are warning signs that Washington might still be interested in challenging Indian dominance.

The Doubters not only have a different reading of history than the first two groups, they see the future as far more troubling. From their perspective, Washington remains a potential threat to Indian interests, just as it was during much of the Cold War, when it armed and supported Pakistan. While the Enthusiasts and Free Riders might point to the threat to India from a "rising" China, and conclude that Washington sees India as a potential balancer, the Doubters, found among many diplomats and soldiers who came to political maturity during the worst period of US-Indian relations (the 1970s), do not believe that the Americans will consistently hold this view. The doubters favour continued restrictions on American scholars in India, are wary of American attempts to broker an agreement on Kashmir, and are alarmed by the rising "American lobby" in New Delhi and Mumbai, as distorting an independent analysis of Indian-American relations.

Finally, the Hostiles see America as not only a dominant superpower, but as intrinsically opposed to India. From the left we hear that America seeks to dominate Indian markets, exploit Indian labour and manpower, and pollute the Indian landscape, to its own benefit and India's detriment. On the right the arguments include a fear of cultural pollution from Hollywood and materialistic America, a concern that American technology will wipe out indigenous skills and entrepreneurs, and finally that Washington will never really abandon Pakistan because it needs to appease Muslim opinion, and because it fears a rising Hindu India.

These four opinion clusters overlap, and a major Indian debate on relations with America is now underway. Washington must understand this debate, for it will influence future Indian policy decisions. How America responds to these Indian demands will shape the balance of influence among these four schools. Burying Indian-US differences under labels ("natural allies" being one of them), does injustice to the prospect of two democratic states discussing their real differences and their real shared interests, and forging a relationship that is both durable and mutually beneficial.

2030: Not India, Not China,..USA still a superpower...

recent blog lead to this thought..: is Asia is king of 21st century?? that what we are hearing today. then, why I feel America(/'Big brother') will still boss around..?

Now with genX everyone in the family has a word to say/comment to make but 'Big brother' makes decisions and will continue to do so. 2006 events highlights self-confidence among others countries & divide in US community. Lets not forget the fact mr.Bush is unpopular so whatever he(/his friends/his policy) does is & will be unpopular not just around the world but within americans as well. A genuine superpower does not merely have military and political influence, but also must be at the top of the economic, scientific, and cultural pyramids. Soviet Union was only a partial superpower, and the most recent genuine superpower before the United States was the British Empire.

Economy: challenger 'China' - the progress that the US economy would make from 1945 to 2030 (85 years) would have to be achieved by China in just the 25 years from 2005 to 2030. Even then, this is just the total GDP, not per capita GDP, which would still be merely a fourth of America's. (assuming US GDP 3.5% and china's GDP 10%.. by 2030, US economy size $30 trillion in 2006 dollar and china's will be around $2.2 trillion)

Brand america from Inventions to mass-marketing: Creating world-accepting brand such as Nike, Coco-cola, Xerox, Google, (very recently)Youtube,. Europe & Japan had worked very hard in last 50yrs to have few in few specific selectors. Become the nation that produces the new inventions and corporations that are adopted by the mass market into their daily lives. Lets accept American-dominated 'blogosphere' emerged as a powerful force of information & media. USSR was ahead of the US in the space race at first, until President Kennedy decided in 1961 to put a man on the moon by 1969. now, China has plans to put a man on the moon by 2024.

Military power: "Have a military capable of waging wars anywhere in the globe (even if it does not actually wage any). Part of the opposition that anti-Americans have to the US wars in Afghanistan and Iraq is the envy arising from the US being the only country with the means to invade multiple medium-size countries in other continents and still sustain very few casualties. No other country currently is even near having the ability to project military power with such force and range. Mere nuclear weapons are no substitute for this. The inability of the rest of the world to do anything to halt genocide in Darfur is evidence of how such problems can only get addressed if and when America addresses them."

Education & Immigration: 17 of the world's top 20 universities are in the US. ofcourse, we can notice odd good B-school poping-up elsewhere but Noone is even close to MIT. so US will continuce to attract top students from Asia, Europe and retain them. "US effectively receives a subsidy of $100 to $200 billion a year, as people educated at the expense of another nation immigrate here and promptly participate in the workforce". as long as, India & No other country has size & capablities (atleast today) to attract smart immigratent.

Entertainment & Culture: No one will be able to (/willing to) address Piracy issues (we need smart business-man & business plan to overcome this problem). and "When American teenagers are actively pirating music and movies made in India or China, only then will the US have been surpassed in this area. Take a moment to think how distant this scenario is from current reality."

Europe and Japan have tried for decades, and have only achieved parity with the US on maybe two of these dimensions at most.

PS: US will remain superpower, claims CIA